Crisis-proof (CP 2/2009)

The Danish company BTM Consult Aps specializes in the monitoring and analysis of the wind energy market. Its annual world market updates and ten-year forecasts are important sources of information. Coatings Partner interviewed Per Krogsgaard, one of the managing directors.

Mr. Krogsgaard, now that you’ve completed your annual analysis for 2008, where did the wind energy industry grow fastest last year?

In China and in the United States. Business in China grew, believe it or not, by some 106.3 percent compared to 2007, and China now has wind farms with a capacity of more than 12,000 megawatts.

In the USA the capacity grew by just under 50 percent to over 25,000 megawatts. The two countries will continue to be the wind energy markets that will grow the most. In relative terms, although Europe has the most wind energy plants, generating just under 66,000 megawatts, business there only grew by just under ten percent compared to 2007.

In terms of the number of individual wind energy plants, the industrialized countries are of course still in the lead. The United States, for instance, which has over 33,000 wind turbines today, and Germany, where more than 20,000 rotors generate electricity.

However, the large nations in Asia are not far behind: India has just under 14,000, while China has around 12,000 wind energy plants.

What does the near future hold in the wind energy industry? Will there be a dip due to the economic crisis?

Our forecasts show that the industry will continue to grow in spite of the -current financial crisis. Worldwide, we have recorded a steadily steep increase since 2000. Whereas the capacity was 24,000 megawatts back then, it grew to over 122,000 by the end of 2008. Such a development does not suddenly collapse from one day to the next, even if the financing is currently more difficult.

The general trend points upwards, and the increasing number of very large wind farms shows the attractiveness of the wind energy market. By 2013, we would expect to see a worldwide capacity in-crease of around 220,000 megawatts, over 10,000 of which would be in the off-shore segment.

What percentage of the world’s electricity generation does wind energy account for today?

In 2008, 1.3 percent, which means an annual electricity production output of about 254 terawatt hours or, in other terms, 254 billion kilowatt hours. By 2013, we are predicting 3.35 percent – almost triple the amount.

Is wind energy thus interesting for investments?

I would say yes. The necessity of generating electricity in a CO₂ neutral way and of getting our world to change in the direction of renewable energies has already made wind energy an industry with a future for quite some time.

Renewable energies are also set to grow in economic significance as fossil fuels become increasingly scarce and above all more expensive, and to the extent that politicians define new CO₂ reduction targets and implement them through legislation and government funding.

www.btm.dk